AIDS, longevity and long-run income

Pedro Ferreira

Applied Economics, 2013, vol. 45, issue 15, 2117-2125

Abstract: This article studies the long-run impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. We focus on the disincentive to human capital accumulation given by shorter life span. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations model with education and saving decisions, calibrated for a cross-section of countries. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in future, on average, 20% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases such as Botswana, South Africa and Zambia by more than 40%. The impact of population decline was found to be irrelevant.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.654915

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