Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll

Ralf Fendel, Michael Frenkel and Jan-Christoph Rülke

Applied Economics, 2013, vol. 45, issue 7, 829-838

Abstract: This article uses the monthly Wall Street Journal poll between 2002 and 2010 to analyse whether professional economic forecasters believe in and, thus, apply Taylor-type rules for their own forecasts. Using their forecasts for the Federal Funds rate, the inflation rate and capacity utilization, we estimate whether these are internally consistent with the message of Taylor(-type) rules. We find that the expectation formation can indeed be described by Taylor-type rules.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.613770

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