A vector autoregressive model of the British Columbia regional economy

Linda Debenedictis

Applied Economics, 1997, vol. 29, issue 7, 877-888

Abstract: We construct a small vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the usefulness of this approach to forecasting the British Columbia (BC) macro economy. The forecasts are compared with univariate ARIMA forecasts. Overall, our results suggest that the accuracy of the VAR matches or exceeds that of the univariate ARIMA. The accuracy of the predictions from our VAR model indicates that VAR as a forecasting tool, is a promising approach for regional forecasting and warrants further investigation. Formal tests for Granger causality are conducted and we find evidence of bi-directional causality between BC employment and prices; and uni-directional causality from BC GDP to both BC employment and Canadian GDP. Our results also suggest uni-directional causality from Canadian GDP to both BC employment and prices; and from prices to GDP within BC.

Date: 1997
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368497326534 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:7:p:877-888

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/000368497326534

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().