Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports

Jean-Marc Falter and Christophe Perignon ()

Applied Economics, 2000, vol. 32, issue 13, 1757-1765

Abstract: The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.

Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1080/000368400421101

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