A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK

Robert McNown and Cristobal Ridao-Cano

Applied Economics, 2005, vol. 37, issue 5, 521-532

Abstract: Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000307021

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