Export and production growth: evidence from three major wheat exporters of Australia, Canada and the United States

Qing Xiao and Michael Reed

Applied Economics, 2007, vol. 39, issue 3, 309-319

Abstract: This article investigates the robustness of the relationship between export and production growth for three major wheat exporters: Australia, Canada and the United States from 1966 to 2000. Combining production, international trade and development theories, a four variable (production, exports, producer price and imports) vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model is developed for each country. The causality results show that the hypothesis of export-led development is supported by these three major players in the international wheat trade, though a bi-directional causality is found for Canada and the USA. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to further investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/00036840500439010

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