Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football

I. Graham and H. Stott

Applied Economics, 2008, vol. 40, issue 1, 99-109

Abstract: The efficiency of gambling markets has frequently been questioned. In order to investigate the rationality of bookmaker odds, we use an ordered probit model to generate predictions for English football matches and compare these predictions with the odds of UK bookmaker William Hill. Further, we develop a model that predicts bookmaker odds. Combining a predictive model based on results and a bookmaker model based on previous quoted odds allows us to compare directly William Hill opinion of various teams with the team ratings generated by the predictive model. We also compare the objective value of individual home advantage and distance travelled with the value attributed to these factors by bookmakers. We show that there are systematic biases in bookmaker odds, and that these biases cannot be explained by William Hill odds omitting valuable, or excluding extraneous, information.

Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701728799 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:99-109

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/00036840701728799

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().