The dilemma of choosing talent: Michael Jordans are hard to find

Peter Groothuis, James Richard Hill and Tim Perri

Applied Economics, 2009, vol. 41, issue 25, 3193-3198

Abstract: This article explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987 to 2003. We find there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found, they are usually identified early. However, more false positives exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner's curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose, but, if you are going to win, you must buy a ticket.

Date: 2009
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Working Paper: The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find (2007)
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DOI: 10.1080/00036840701564459

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