Nonlinear model for Panamax secondhand ship

Ching-Chih Chang and Tin-Chia Lai

Applied Economics, 2011, vol. 43, issue 17, 2193-2198

Abstract: Hitherto, scholarly analyses of secondhand ship prices in the international dry bulk market have focused on Capesize. This article adopts a nonlinear model based on the well-known Gaussian distribution theory, with a view to examine Panamax activity from January 1996 to December 2007. According to X-11 and Phase Average Trend (PAT) analysis, three whole cycles were discernible during the study period. Three nonlinear prediction models are developed, which are commensurate with these findings. Evidently, the empirical results match the inflated predictions of the models, with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) falling below 20%.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/00036840903120670

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