Inter-regional endogenous growth under the impacts of demographic changes

Tae-Jeong Kim and Geoffrey Hewings

Applied Economics, 2013, vol. 45, issue 24, 3431-3449

Abstract: This article attempts to project the economic paths for the individual Midwest states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, as well as the rest of the US) in the near future when the population ageing becomes more pronounced. To accomplish this task, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed so that it could incorporate the inter-regional transactions and endogenous growth mechanisms within the framework of an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. Key parameter values associated with the regional interconnections were assigned using a multi-regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Midwest states. Two different steady-state results were presented with two different age-cohort population structures corresponding to year 2007 and 2030. These steady-state results imply that the rate of declining of per-capita output is projected to be heterogeneous across the regions due to different developments of age-cohort population structures and consequently different levels of endogenously determined educational investment of workers. Also, two steady-state simulation results revealed that the development of output price in a certain region reflects the dynamics of demographics of every region. Meanwhile, the dynamic simulation results reveal that the per-capita output of every region is projected to grow positively in the near future when the population ageing will be pronounced. However, the growth rate of the per-capita output is projected to be heterogeneous across the regions: the regions with high-skilled workers hold the potential threat that population ageing could give more negative impacts on the economy due to the relatively sluggish growth of human capital stock. Also, the dynamic simulation results show that certain regions in the Midwest will experience their terms of trade deterioration in the near future, implying that careful attention should be given to their future trade conditions.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.709603

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