India's petroleum demand: estimations and projections

Pradeep Agrawal

Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 47, issue 12, 1199-1212

Abstract: Energy security is crucial for sustaining high economic growth in India. This article empirically estimates India's long- and short-term demand relations for crude oil, diesel and petrol (gasoline) using the ARDL and ECM cointegration procedures and then uses them to project demand for these products up to 2025 under various scenarios of GDP growth and oil prices. Our projections show that over 2012 to 2025, demand is likely to increase by about 74% for crude oil, 117% for diesel and 136% for petrol - the annual growth rates being about 4.3% for crude oil, 6.1% for diesel and 6.8% for petrol (gasoline). This article suggests that India needs to (1) take measures to improve efficiency in the use of petroleum products; (2) try to enhance supplies such as through production sharing agreements by Indian oil companies with other countries and (3) increase the use of nuclear, hydro, solar and other alternative energy sources, as Western European countries have done.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.993131

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