Periodograms on fiscal illusion: discussing the cycle lengths of public finances in European countries

Paulo Mourão and Jos預edro Cabral

Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 47, issue 16, 1698-1709

Abstract: In this article, we study the duration of public finance cycles in 12 European countries since 1960. We applied periodogram techniques on the levels of fiscal illusion found for these established democracies and tested the statistical significance of the Fourier frequency peaks. Our empirical efforts revealed that most of the cycles in these countries could be characterized as long-term cycles (approximately 30 years), embodying subcycles of approximately 15 years. These findings show that in addition to the commonly studied electoral cycles or real business cycles, our democracies demonstrate extended public finance cycles that extend over various legislative tenures ruled by different political parties.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.1002901

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