Is Beta- t -EGARCH(1,1) superior to GARCH(1,1)?

Szabolcs Blazsek and Marco Villatoro

Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 47, issue 17, 1764-1774

Abstract: Statistical performance, in-sample point forecast precision and out-of-sample density forecast precision of GARCH(1,1) and Beta- t -EGARCH(1,1) models are compared. We study the volatility of nine global industry indices for period from April 2006 to July 2010. Competing models are estimated for periods before, during and after the United States (US) financial crisis of 2008. The results provide evidence of the superior out-of-sample predictive performance of Beta- t -EGARCH compared to GARCH after the US financial crisis.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.1000536

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