US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

Jinghua Lei and Kai Liu

Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 47, issue 52, 5689-5705

Abstract: This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1054075

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