Do financial indicators have directional predictability for US home sales?

Hamid Baghestani and Ilker Kaya

Applied Economics, 2016, vol. 48, issue 15, 1349-1360

Abstract: This study investigates the directional predictability of financial indicators for home sales across tranquil (1984--2005) and volatile (1972--1983 and 2006--2013) periods. We find that the mortgage rate has directional predictability for both existing and newly built home sales for up to 2005. The federal funds rate generally has directional predictability for existing (newly built) home sales in 1984--2005 (1972--1983). The term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 1972--1983 but generally not in the tranquil period of 1984--2005. Further, unlike mortgage and federal funds rates, the term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 2006--2013 and thus can help the Fed with useful information (assuming that this trend continues).

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1100253

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