Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?

Robert Gausden and Mohammad S. Hasan

Applied Economics, 2016, vol. 48, issue 18, 1695-1709

Abstract: The objective is to investigate whether access to data on consumer confidence would have aided forecasts of the growth of UK household consumption expenditure over the recent period of economic crisis. A disaggregated study is performed on the basis that consideration is given not only to household spending in total but also to expenditure on each of durable goods, semi-durable goods, nondurable goods and services. The empirical analysis demonstrates how modifications which are made to the harmonized indicator of the European Commission are able to enhance predictive accuracy. However, the benefit which is derived from consulting consumer survey data does not extend to an earlier interval over which the behaviour of consumer sentiment was far less volatile.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1105926

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