Estimating interest rate setting behaviour in Korea: a constrained ordered choices model approach
Hyeongwoo Kim (),
Wen Shi () and
Applied Economics, 2016, vol. 48, issue 23, 2199-2214
We study the Bank of Korea’s interest rate setting behaviour using an array of constrained ordered choices models, where the Monetary Policy Committee revises the target policy interest rate only when the current market interest rate deviates from the optimal rate by more than certain threshold values. Our models explain changes in the monetary policy stance well for the monthly frequency Korean data since January 2000. We find important roles for the output gap and the foreign exchange rate in understanding the Bank of Korea’s rate decision-making process. We also implement out-of-sample forecast exercises with September 2008 (Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy) for a split point. We demonstrate that out-of-sample predictability improves greatly for the rate cut and the rate hike decisions using SE-adjusted inaction bands.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Working Paper: Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Korea: A Constrained Ordered Choices Model Approach (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:23:p:2199-2214
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips
More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().