Two universal, probabilistic measures of competitive imbalance

M Kevin McGee

Applied Economics, 2016, vol. 48, issue 31, 2883-2894

Abstract: I propose two universal measures of competitive imbalance. The first is, like those in the existing literature, based on team season win--loss records. The second is based solely on the outcomes of the various series of individual matchups during a season. Both measures will on average equal (2 p − 1)-super-2, where p is the ‘typical’ probability that the stronger team will win any particular game. Both measures will average zero when a league is competitively balanced and will converge to 1 as the league approaches perfect imbalance. In addition, both measures are universal, in that they are on average independent of the number of teams in the league and the number of games played during the season.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1130792

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