The price of the euro: evidence from sovereign debt markets

Erik Mäkelä

Applied Economics, 2016, vol. 48, issue 47, 4510-4525

Abstract: The objective of this article is to ascertain how the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe has affected its members’ long-term government bond yields. In order to estimate the effect, this article utilizes a synthetic control approach. The main finding is that the majority of the member countries did not receive economic gains from the EMU in sovereign debt markets. Synthetic counterfactual analysis finds strong evidence that Austria, Belgium, Finland, France and the Netherlands have paid a positive and substantial euro-premium in their 10-year government bonds since the adoption of the single currency. After the most recent financial crisis, government bond yields have been higher in all member countries compared to the situation that would have occurred without the monetary unification. This article concludes that from the viewpoint of sovereign borrowing, it would be beneficial for a country to maintain its own currency and monetary policy.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1161714

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