What determines the value of recommendation change? A preliminary analysis

Omar Farooq

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 16, 1557-1570

Abstract: This article determines the condition under which recommendation changes relative to consensus recommendation and recommendation changes relative to analyst’s previous recommendation are valuable. We show that recommendation upgrades (downgrades) relative to consensus recommendation are followed by significantly positive (negative) short-term returns whenever consensus recommendation represents convergence of analysts’ opinions. We also show that as the standard deviation associated with consensus recommendation increase, the value of recommendation changes reduce significantly. This article also shows that recommendation upgrades (downgrades) relative to analyst’s previous recommendation are followed by significantly positive (negative) short-term returns whenever interval between two consecutive recommendations is relatively short. We also show that, as the interval between two consecutive recommendations increase, the value of recommendation changes reduce significantly. Our results are robust across various subsamples based on size and region.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1221043

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