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Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes

Claudiu Albulescu (), Christian Aubin and Daniel Goyeau

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 18, 1794-1807

Abstract: We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7–2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on a time-varying unobserved component model. In line with recent empirical studies we discover that in the long run, the inflation and its uncertainty negatively impact the stock prices, opposed to the well-known Fisher effect. In addition we show that for several sector stock indexes the negative effect of inflation and its uncertainty vanishes after the crisis outburst. However, in the short run the results provide evidence in favour of a negative impact of uncertainty, while the inflation has no significant influence on stock prices, except for the consumption indexes. The consideration of business cycle effects confirms our findings, which proves that the results are robust, both for long- and short-run relationships.

Date: 2017
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Working Paper: Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes (2016) Downloads
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