Precious metals, oil and the exchange rate: contemporaneous spillovers

Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Bart Frijns and Alireza Tourani-Rad

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 38, 3863-3879

Abstract: We investigate the contemporaneous spillovers among precious metals, crude oil and the US$ exchange rate. We contend that conventional reduced-form vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on lead/lag relations do not fully capture the interactions among these series as these models ignore the contemporaneous effects. Using a Structural VAR model, we identify these contemporaneous spillovers, which are shown to be strong and asymmetric. We further show that not taking into consideration the contemporaneous interactions among these assets leads to inaccurate findings and inevitably to inaccurate interpretations of the causal relations among them.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1270416

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