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GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy

Ashwin Madhou, Tayushma Sewak, Imad Moosa and Vikash Ramiah

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 38, 3880-3890

Abstract: Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1270417

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