Do global CO emissions from fossil-fuel consumption exhibit long memory? a fractional-integration analysis

José Belbute and Alfredo Pereira

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 40, 4055-4070

Abstract: In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects. Our fractional-integration analysis highlights that this is not the case.

Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1273508

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