Economics at your fingertips  

Think national, forecast local: a case study of 71 German urban housing markets

Konstantin Kholodilin () and Boriss Siliverstovs

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 42, 4271-4297

Abstract: In this article, we examine whether the local indicators are able to predict the city-level housing prices and rents better than national indicators. For this purpose, we assess the forecasting ability of 126 indicators and 21 types of forecast combinations using a sample of 71 large German cities. There are several predictors that are especially useful, namely price-to-rent ratios, national-level business confidence, and consumer surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are among the top forecasting models. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by a reduction in root mean square error, compared to the naive models.

Date: 2017
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Think national, forecast local: A case study of 71 German urban housing markets (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

Page updated 2019-08-12
Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:42:p:4271-4297