Economics at your fingertips  

Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?

Kelly Burns and Imad Moosa

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 48, 4897-4910

Abstract: Structural breaks have been suggested by several economists as a possible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle, in the sense that an exchange rate model can outperform the random walk in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error if the period under investigation is free of structural breaks. The results indicate that structural breaks cannot explain the inability of the flexible price monetary model to outperform the random walk. The only plausible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is that forecasting accuracy is traditionally assessed by magnitude-only measures. When forecasting accuracy is assessed by alternative measures that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of error, the monetary model can outperform the random walk regardless of the presence or otherwise of structural breaks.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

Page updated 2018-11-10
Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:48:p:4897-4910