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Safe haven or contagion? The disparate effects of Euro-zone crises on non-Euro-zone neighbours

Graham Bird, Wenti Du, Eric Pentecost () and Thomas Willett

Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 59, 5895-5904

Abstract: While there have been many studies that examine contagion within the Euro-zone, this article investigates the potential contagion from changes in the Greek sovereign risk premium over 2009–2016, as measured by the yield on 10-year government bonds, to six European countries outside of the Euro-zone all of which operated a managed float against the Euro. We find evidence of contagion to potential Euro-zone ascendants (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), but ‘flight to safety’ (or safe haven) effects for the United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland.

Date: 2017
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