Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Maria del Carmen Ramos Herrera ()

Applied Economics, 2018, vol. 50, issue 42, 4540-4555

Abstract: Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.

Date: 2018
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Working Paper: Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: An empirical analysis based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (2017)
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1458193

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