Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

Christopher M. Duquette, Richard Cebula () and Franklin Mixon

Applied Economics, 2019, vol. 51, issue 52, 5694-5700

Abstract: In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1617399

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