Forecasting realized volatility of crude oil futures with equity market uncertainty

Fenghua Wen, Yupei Zhao, Minzhi Zhang and Chunyan Hu

Applied Economics, 2019, vol. 51, issue 59, 6411-6427

Abstract: This paper examines whether the equity market uncertainty (EMU) index contains incremental information for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. We use 5-min high-frequency transaction data for WTI crude oil futures and develop six heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models based on classical HAR-type models. The empirical results suggest that EMU contains more incremental information than the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. More importantly, we argue that EMU is a non negligible additional predictive variable that can significantly improve the 1-day ahead predictive accuracy of all six HAR-type models, and improve the 1-week ahead forecasting performance of the HAR-RV, HAR-RV-J, HAR-RSV, HAR-RV-SJ models. These findings highlight a strong short-term and a weak mid-term predictive ability of EMU in the crude oil futures market.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1619023

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