Rate of return to schooling and business cycles

Yanan Chen and Kyle A. Kelly

Applied Economics, 2020, vol. 52, issue 56, 6114-6122

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the economic conditions – unemployment rate and unemployment change – on the rate of returns to schooling, as well as the effects on the gender difference in the returns to schooling during business cycles. Data from American Community Survey 2000–2017 shows that economic conditions have significant effects on the rate of return to schooling for both men and women, and the gender difference exists. Unemployment has positive effects on the rate of return to schooling for both men and women. The returns to schooling are expected to increase in recessions and decrease in expansions for both men and women. In addition, the effects are greater for men than for women. The female-male difference in the rate of return to schooling is expected to be smaller as unemployment rate goes up and greater as unemployment rate goes down. We also find men’s returns to schooling are more sensitively responded to the economic conditions change than women’s.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1784387

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