Mafia infiltrations in Italian municipalities: two statistical indicators

Mario Eboli, Andrea Toto and Andrea Ziruolo

Applied Economics, 2021, vol. 53, issue 24, 2693-2712

Abstract: We study the administrative behaviour of a sample of Italian municipalities dismissed by the Government because of mafia infiltrations, looking at their balance-sheet data. Using linear discriminant analysis and logistic regressions, we put forward two statistical indicators of the probability that a mafia infiltrated a city council. Our results characterize the administrative profile of infiltrated municipalities. We obtain non-obvious results concerning their i) high levels of arrears, both of tax collections and payments; ii) low levels of indebtness; and iii) low levels of capital expenditures, especially for public works.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1866157

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