The long-term human toll of natural disasters: a study of fetal exposure to the 1974 Tornado super outbreak

Sok Chul Hong, Dongyoung Kim and Eutteum Lee

Applied Economics, 2021, vol. 53, issue 4, 469-481

Abstract: This study investigates the long-term effect of fetal exposure to the 1974 Tornado Super Outbreak. Using the 2008–2017 American Community Survey and a difference-in-differences framework, we estimate the adverse effects of this stressful in-utero shock on health and socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood. The effects explain 7% of the average probability of having at least one physical/cognitive difficulty and are robust to selection and migration issues. We find weaker effects on adulthood socioeconomic status and birth outcomes. The weaker effects on adulthood socioeconomic outcomes are because of complementing parental behaviours. We suggest maternal stress and fear as a key mechanism. Our estimate implies that the annual earned income loss from disaster-driven health problems was $72 million in 2017. Our findings suggest that the adverse impacts on late outcomes might be largely caused by maternal stress due to the unpredictability of the Tornado Super Outbreak. (JEL I15, O10, Q54)

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1808181

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