Leader-follower dynamics in real historical time: a Markovian test of non-linear causality between sail and steam (co-)development

Bruno Damásio and Sandro Mendonça

Applied Economics, 2023, vol. 55, issue 17, 1908-1918

Abstract: The most dramatic changes in modern shipping occurred with the application of new industrial-age technologies to oceanic transportation. In metal-hulled and engine-powered trading platforms, industrial-age steamers (especially tramps and liners) lead to marked increases in the average tonnage of a typical vessel crossing the seas of an expanding global economy. Some of the most important developments had to do with the substitution of traditional wind-driven ships by successive cohorts of vessels exploiting the comparative advantages of mechanization. In this paper, we deploy a set of both established and less-orthodox quantitative approaches to historical commercial shipping time-series so as to model the (complex) relationship between steam and sail performance. We find that, indeed, there is evidence of leader-follower dynamics during the later part of 19th century. This process of ‘creative destruction’ was non-linear.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2100868

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