Asymmetric relationship between money supply and house prices in states across the U.S

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Hesam Ghodsi, Muris Hadzic and Hardik Marfatia

Applied Economics, 2023, vol. 55, issue 31, 3580-3608

Abstract: There is an intricate link between money supply and house prices. However, housing markets have downward price rigidity, different supply elasticities, and changing market sentiments. Thus, the response of house prices to expansionary monetary policy shocks differs from contractionary shocks. We use an asymmetric/nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) approach to estimate the asymmetric effects of money supply on house prices in each state in the U.S. a practice that makes our study differ from previous research. The house price growth in 38 states responds symmetrically to money supply changes in the short run. However, in 48 states, positive changes in money supply impact house prices differently from negative changes in the short run. In addition, there is a long-run relationship between money supply and house prices, but only when we account for asymmetries.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2116390

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