State political uncertainty and local housing markets - Evidence from U.S. mid-term gubernatorial elections

Chi-Young Choi

Applied Economics, 2023, vol. 55, issue 57, 6717-6738

Abstract: Using U.S. county-level data, this paper finds a significant negative impact of state political uncertainty on local house price growth. A unit increase in state political uncertainty is associated with about 3.4% point decrease in county-level house price growth. The impact is asymmetric and varies widely across localities, with a weaker impact found in areas with a higher fraction of homeowners. The results are robust to endogeneity, sample selection, model specifications, and alternative measures of uncertainty. The main findings are further confirmed by a case study based on a difference-in-difference analysis.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2165618

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