Property crime and the China trade shock

W. David Allen and W. Charles Sawyer

Applied Economics, 2024, vol. 56, issue 10, 1167-1190

Abstract: Burglary has declined markedly in the U.S.A. We investigate whether increased imports from China (the China Trade Shock), by reducing the market value of theft-worthy goods, reduced the incentive to commit this and other property crimes. Panel data models reveal lower property crime rates in association with increased Chinese imports and comparable effects in relation to other prominent trade partners, indicating minimal property crime displacement effects. Some import effects do link to increased violent crime rates, but none in relation to imports from China. The results illustrate how expanded trade provides social benefits in addition to its well-established economic benefits.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2175772

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