The future of the labour force: a quantitative examination of the drivers of female labor force participation and total fertility rate in developed economies

Hany Guirguis, Theresa Donlon, Maura McCarthy, Adis Mehovic and Rehan Mehta

Applied Economics, 2024, vol. 56, issue 44, 5238-5248

Abstract: Recent sluggish economic growth in developed countries has become a cause for concern regarding the long-term sustainability of the global economy. Continuous declines in the total fertility rate (TFR) constitute an essential factor in stagnant economic growth in developed countries. In this paper, we utilize fixed and random effect models to examine the relationships of TFR with putative TFR determinants in G7 countries from 1980 to 2020. Our findings support the societal response hypothesis wherein the relationship between TFR and female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) is posited to be stable and positive. Furthermore, the present study confirms a positive relationship of crude marriage rate (CMR) and market childcare availability (MktCC) with TFR. A negative relationship between the ageing population (AGE) and TFR was observed, consistent with broad concerns regarding the impending economic impacts of population ageing in developed countries.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2244248

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