The impact of disaster exposure on the success of open space referenda

Xian Liu

Applied Economics, 2024, vol. 56, issue 45, 5394-5411

Abstract: In response to losses of open space, local voter referenda have become a popular and effective means to raise funding for land conservation in the US. This paper provides empirical evidence on the effects of disasters on the success of voter referenda for open-space conservation. Our results show that voters become less supportive of subsequent ballot measures if their communities recently experienced a major disaster. The preferred specification reveals that a recent major disaster is associated with an 8.4% reduction in the odds of a ‘yes’ vote. We find further evidence that the effect is especially strong for referenda using tax increases to fund preservation. This disaster effect, however, is temporary rather than permanent. For disaster events occurring more than 12 months prior to a referendum, we find that the effect is no longer statistically significant.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2249633

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