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Should the strongest serve first? Strategic ordering of servers in doubles tennis

Nikolai Avkhimovich

Applied Economics, 2024, vol. 56, issue 51, 6443-6452

Abstract: Do athletes adapt to changing conditions within the match, and how? Can their strategic choice of server lead to a better outcome in a match? Leveraging point-by-point data on Grand Slam tennis doubles, we show that better historical serving performance in singles matches leads to a higher probability of being assigned as the ‘first server of the match’ in doubles. We also show adaptive athletes’ behaviour during doubles matches: poorer serving performance in the previous set leads to a higher probability of being replaced as a ‘first server’ in the following set by the teammate. Both of those strategic choices lead to performance improvement: up to $5\% $5% more points can be won if the strongest athlete serves first.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2273804

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