How quickly do markets incorporate new information? Evidence from the NCAA men’s basketball betting market

Daniel Hickman and Neil Metz

Applied Economics, 2025, vol. 57, issue 31, 4506-4522

Abstract: Gambling markets for sporting events provide opportunities to examine factors that influence the forecast accuracy of prediction markets in a broader sense. In this study, we use information from the betting market on NCAA men’s basketball contests to analyse the rate at which markets incorporate changing information into pricing. Using data from the 2009 to 2022 seasons, we investigate how turnover in player personnel, coaching, and conference affiliation between seasons impacts the accuracy of betting lines. We find some evidence that coaching changes and, to a lesser extent increased player turnover, lead to decreased accuracy and a greater amount of movement in market lines, but that these effects are generally only evident for the first few weeks of the season.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364077 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:57:y:2025:i:31:p:4506-4522

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2364077

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().