 Assessing Vulnerability to Financial Crisis: Evidence from IndonesiaLloyd Kenward Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 1999, vol. 35, issue 3, 71-95 Abstract: This paper examines the view that the recent Indonesian crisis was largely unforeseen. The broadest macroeconomic indicators were of virtually no help in presaging the crisis; neither were high-frequency financial indicators. But warnings were there, just below the surface, in some of the macro indicators and in certain structural weaknesses that were long recognised as threats to financial stability. That said, none of these warnings suggested crisis of the magnitude that eventually occurred. The Indonesian experience indicates that macroeconomic stability should never be taken for granted. Signs of vulnerability to financial instability include: the degree of reliance on gross private capital inflows (taking into account maturities and the implications for rollovers); the extent of unhedged foreign exchange positions; and certain indirect indicators, such as policy slippages and key personnel changes. Finally, in a world of volatile capital flows, crisis will tend to occur before standard economic data suggest that crisis is imminent. Date: 1999 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:bindes:v:35:y:1999:i:3:p:71-95 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/00074919912331337697 Access Statistics for this article Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies is currently edited by Firman Witoelar Kartaadipoetra, Arianto Patunru, Robert Sparrow, Sarah Xue Dong and Sean Muir More articles in Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies from Taylor & Francis Journals |
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