Fiscal sustainability and solvency: theory and recent experience in Indonesia

Stephen Marks

Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 2004, vol. 40, issue 2, 227-242

Abstract: A major challenge for Indonesian economic policy makers is to avoid the recurrence of conditions that could trigger a new economic crisis. One of the important dimensions of this challenge will be to conduct fiscal policy in a way that is sustainable, given the level of interest rates and the rate of growth of the economy. This paper synthesises various approaches to the measurement of fiscal sustainability that have appeared in the economic literature, relates these measures to the fundamental concept of fiscal solvency, and applies the framework to Indonesia over the period 1991-2003. The domestic and foreign debt positions of the central government are treated separately, to capture the influence of exchange rate changes on the relative costs of domestic and foreign borrowing. The empirical analysis indicates that Indonesia has met the fiscal sustainability criterion in recent years, except when the rupiah has depreciated heavily.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/0007491042000205295

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Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies is currently edited by Firman Witoelar Kartaadipoetra, Arianto Patunru, Robert Sparrow, Sarah Xue Dong and Sean Muir

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