The varying levels of contrasting adaptation in Central Asia’s climate change politics

Morena Skalamera

Central Asian Survey, 2025, vol. 44, issue 1, 85-104

Abstract: Central Asia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. There is, however, a lack of research on how local businesses, political elites and the general public perceive the need for comprehensive greening initiatives to address its consequences. To account for the material and ideational factors influencing clean energy transition in Central Asian petrostates, I offer an alternative analytic framework that I call ‘contrasting adaptation’. I argue that the energy transition has resulted in two contradictory responses at multiple levels of political governance: a formal response that is broadly supportive of new ‘green’ identities and policies, and an informal response that seeks to delay plans to decarbonize local business models and continues to prioritize ‘old’ oil and gas activities through new transnational networks. Drawing on a model of actor interactions at different levels of climate governance, I examine ‘contrasting adaptation’ – its constituent policies and discourse – to provide a better theorized framework for understanding climate politics in Central Asia. I use comparative analysis of the climate policies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two Central Asian petrostates that pledged to carbon neutrality, informed by documentary and textual sources, and discourse analysis.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/02634937.2024.2373086

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