Reassessing NATO’s deterrence and defence posture in the Baltics: rebalancing strategic priorities to counter Russian hybrid aggression

David V. Gioe, Marina Miron and Marc Ozawa

Defense & Security Analysis, 2025, vol. 41, issue 1, 145-165

Abstract: Russia's full-scale (re)invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 has energised longstanding security concerns of the Baltic states. To ensure their security, NATO implemented an enhanced Forward Presence to deter Russian military aggression. This article questions the utility of NATO's conventional deterrent posture rooted in Cold War thinking and argues that its deterrent function is limited, given Russia's different strategic outlook towards the Baltics in contrast to Ukraine. The following analysis explores Russia's strategic interests and why Moscow pursues different goals towards the Baltics in the geo-strategic realm, juxtaposing them with Russia's unflinching approach toward Ukraine. Further, the article argues that Russia relies more on active measures and unconventional tools of statecraft to exert influence on NATO member states such as sabotage, intimidation, cyber-operations, and malign influence. The implication is that Russia's hybrid approach requires a multifaceted strategy that should be updated from NATO's posture in the Baltics.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2024.2424935

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