The insecurity of Taiwan: the dangers of a coercive campaign

Balazs Szanto

Defense & Security Analysis, 2025, vol. 41, issue 1, 166-183

Abstract: The paper takes a critical look at a possible Taiwan crisis, focusing on a coercive violence scenario based on the ideas of Schelling's diplomacy of violence. The paper draws parallels between the on-going crisis in Ukraine and a potential crisis in Taiwan to examine key areas of concern and highlight the potential difficulties it faces in seeking to preserve its independence. The paper agrees with existing research that a direct amphibious assault against the island is not a realistic scenario. However, it highlights that Taiwan is significantly vulnerable to a “diplomacy of violence” campaign. The paper finds that further preparations are needed to ensure the continued defence of Taiwan, most importantly increasing resources available to Taiwanese forces to fight in isolation, strategies to bring the conflict to a quick end, and enhancing the resolve of external actors to intervene on behalf of Taiwan despite the associated costs.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2024.2429876

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