A quantitative analysis of the effects of drone and counter-drone systems on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield

Vikram Mittal and John Goetz

Defense & Security Analysis, 2025, vol. 41, issue 3, 490-503

Abstract: Drone and counter-drone technology are playing an increasingly significant role on the battlefield, as evidenced by the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war. This study quantitatively investigates the impact of these technologies in this ongoing conflict. Utilising a dataset compiled from Oryxspioenkop.com, an open-source reporting website, the study analyses equipment losses incurred by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, focusing specifically on drone losses in relation to ground combat vehicle losses. Statistical comparisons reveal a significant correlation: as one side suffers increased drone losses, their effectiveness in neutralising enemy ground vehicles diminishes. To elucidate further this relationship, the analysis delves into specific weeks of the conflict, examining the strategic roles played by drone and counter-drone systems during key operational phases. By detailing the interplay between UAV deployments and ground combat outcomes, this study aims to enhance our understanding of modern warfare tactics and the evolving significance of aerial technologies in shaping battlefield effectiveness.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2025.2479973

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