Fragile safeguards: insider threats, jihadist intent, and the vulnerabilities of Pakistan’s nuclear security

Sajid Farid Shapoo

Defense & Security Analysis, 2025, vol. 41, issue 3, 504-524

Abstract: This paper investigates the evolving threats to Pakistan’s nuclear security, focusing on the insider-jihadist nexus, and structural vulnerabilities within the country’s nuclear decision-making. Applying the threat assessment model developed by Ackerman et al., this study evaluates adversarial threats and vulnerabilities, particularly within the command-and-control structures governing tactical nuclear weapons. A 2 × 2 matrix is introduced to predict the risk to nuclear assets, emphasising the interaction between nuclear vulnerabilities and adversarial capabilities. Through analysis of two cases of adversarial attacks on Pakistan’s defence establishment, the paper highlights how insider collaboration significantly amplifies the risk of breaches in nuclear security. Highlighting the recurring patterns of radicalisation within the military and the challenges posed by its decentralised command structures, this paper concludes that whilst Pakistan has made some strides in improving physical security, the insider-jihadist nexus remains a persistent risk. By understanding these vulnerabilities, the study offers insights for strengthening nuclear security frameworks.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14751798.2025.2506848 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:cdanxx:v:41:y:2025:i:3:p:504-524

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CDAN20

DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2025.2506848

Access Statistics for this article

Defense & Security Analysis is currently edited by Martin Edmonds

More articles in Defense & Security Analysis from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().