Survival and Exits in Neighbourhoods: A Long-Term Analyses

Viggo Nordvik and Lena Magnusson Turner

Housing Studies, 2015, vol. 30, issue 2, 228-251

Abstract: Neighbourhoods form a frame for our lives. At the same time, neighbourhoods are themselves formed by mobility into and out of them. This paper studies who stays in and who leaves in two districts of Oslo. The empirical analysis is based on a survival model, estimated on a 10-year long longitudinal data-set, because neither theory nor prior studies yield sufficient guidance to build an empirical model. We propose a way to nest and test survival models and utilise this in the model specification. We find that the intensity of the outflow of native Norwegian from an area is not to any substantial degree related to the size of the immigrant population. Hence, our results do not confirm the widespread narrative of white flight as a response to an increased immigrant population in areas of Oslo. Instead, the larger part of the outflow is explained by variables related to the life-course of families. Results do not suggest that increasing the ethnic or income diversity of Oslo neighbourhoods would substantially increase outflows of native Norwegians.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/02673037.2014.982518

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