Effect of terrestrial water storage deficit on economic growth for China

Yijia Ren, Qiuhong Tang, Siao Sun and Paul P.J. Gaffney

International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2025, vol. 41, issue 5-6, 990-1000

Abstract: Terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficits are projected to increase in many regions under climate change, potentially leading to an increase in future droughts and threatening socioeconomic development. However, quantifying the macroeconomic impacts of TWS deficits remains a challenge. This study identifies water deficit and surplus conditions over China using TWS anomaly (TWSA) and precipitation observations, and assesses their macroeconomic effects in conjunction with city-level economic growth data. The results show that economic growth rates are non-linearly affected by both monthly TWSA and precipitation deviations, with negative shocks (water deficits) causing a sharp reduction in growth.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2025.2537402

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